State of the (European) Union
By Daniel Commerford
After centuries of prolonged wars and a semi-constant state of conflict, the countries of Europe tried something out of character during the 19th century: tenuous peace. For much of that century, the continent’s great powers maintained an established balance through complicated military and political alliances meant to deter large and unnecessary wars. This general policy of deterrence held that since most of the Great Powers (France, Russia, United Kingdom, etc.) were considered roughly equal in power, a general war would be far too costly and destructive to be in any countries interest. This change in foreign policy came after centuries of prolonged wars that often devastated nations and left Europe in a semi-constant state of conflict. By the end of that century one of the Great Powers, the Ottoman Empire, had fragmented and produced several new countries in the Balkans. The ethnic populations of these countries often remained under foreign rule and strived to reclaim lost land under the idea of irredentism, an idea defined as:
Any political or popular movement intended to reclaim and reoccupy a “lost” or “unredeemed” area; territorial claims are justified on the basis of real or imagined national and historic (an area formerly part of that state) or ethnic (an area inhabited by that nation or ethnic group) affiliations. (“Irredentism”)
Heightened tensions after independence caused the Balkan Peninsula to become one of the most conflictual regions of Europe with each country having aspirations of reclaiming land at the expense of their neighbors. This seemingly remote conflict would trigger a global war that would unravel Europe’s tenuous peace and cause a then-unparalleled scale of destruction, setting the precedent for a second and even more destructive war. This sequence of events be traced back to the then seemingly unimportant independence and secessionist aspirations of small countries.
In many ways, Europe has consistently been the center or the main cause of major international events for centuries. It is distinct in the aspect that few continents have altered their maps so frequently or dramatically; today, over a quarter of the world´s countries are located within the peninsular continent. This is a remarkable fact when considering it contains less than 10% of the world’s population and is arguably the smallest continent by land area (6%) (European Countries by population (2020). Nevertheless, its map has been subjected to constant change as a result of the unity (or dissolution) of various different cultural groups, often through the use of brutal warfare.
In what seemed like repetition of the events of the previous century, Europe´s lack of lasting peace was seemingly corrected in the latter part of the 20th century. This time it happened not with military alliances and constant threats of intervention, but with the idea of uniting the continent into a separate political entity known as the European Union, an organization designed to maintain stability, promote collective economic growth through cohesive financial measures, and bring an end to the chronic issue of territorial disputes within the union by eliminating border controls. The EU´s structure and political policies also make it highly unlikely for its members to ever go to war again with each other, as it would be detrimental for a European nation to go to war when its industries and companies are so intricately linked together with the countries it would hypothetically go into war against. Aided by the establishment of the EU, the borders of Western Europe have remained firm even as the borders of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia crumbled with the passage of time. However, the union of several countries each with their own culture and ideologies, now brings on the challenge of keeping said union intact. As old habits die hard, Europe’s foundation is being challenged by a new wave of independence and nationalist movements. And according to media sources, some of these movements have become militant and have varying chances of success (“Beyond Catalonia”).
With an economy still frail after the Great Recession, a large increase in support of right-wing austerity parties, and open debate about whether or not its collective government measures lower the credibility of national governments; the EU’s cohesion has been tested several times in recent years. Some analysts agree that the independence movements in some countries are a by-product of the long and severe recession of the early 2010’s (Micó and Carbonell). Others indicate that the subsequent political shift that caused many countries to enter austerity measures and redistribute taxes are the main cause of protest in regions with nationalist aspirations (Stratfor). A commonality that most of these regions share is that the majority are located in affluent northern portions of their respective countries and “have a higher per capita income than the rest of the country” (Vaubel). An example of a region that shares all of these characteristics is Europe’s most recent (and ongoing) independence movement: Catalonia.
Catalonia has long been a proudly distinct region of Spain, a country that maintains that many of its autonomous communities preserve a historic nationality tied to the medieval kingdoms that they formed prior to unification. With its own culture and language, Catalonia is one of the country’s richest and most industrialized regions, accounting for 20% of Spain’s GDP and forming an essential part of Spain´s economy. Like the rest of Spain’s regions, its culture and language were often suppressed after the unification of the country in favor of a more centralized culture with Spanish as the official language. The BBC’s report on the region points out that while “initially retaining its own institutions, the region was ever more tightly integrated into the Spanish state” and eventually ceased to be a political entity separate from that of the state ("Catalonia Region Profile"). It was not until the late 19th century that Catalonia began to associate its strong sense of nationality with the idea of irredentism, much as the Balkans had already done around the same time. The recognition of its own flag and anthem, as well as the historical argument that it was forced to rejoin the Spanish monarchy after the Siege of Barcelona in 1714, all fueled the region´s aspiration to become a country independent from Spain. The Catalan government (Generalitat) believes its independence drive is tied to the basic elements of democracy, actively advocating for a legally binding referendum on the matter. Thus, the characteristics that define nationhood are all present: “their own language and culture, differentiated institutions, a strong feeling of shared history, and all of the symbols necessary to make this claim, from the flag to the anthem” (Micó and Carbonell).
In contrast to the 19th century, modern day arguments for independence stem from primarily financial reasons. Being one of the few Spanish regions to manage to industrialize during the first revolution, Catalonia has long been one of Spain’s most prosperous areas and now has an economy about the size of Denmark’s ("Catalonia Region Profile"). With the metropolitan port city of Barcelona serving as its economic base, it is also the national leader in terms of exports and Spain’s important tourism sector. In regard to its relations with the rest of Europe, Catalonia maintains that it should automatically become a member of the EU upon independence, as it would rank as the 15th or 16th highest country in the bloc in terms of GDP (Henley). However, with no precedent for such an event, it is unclear what the exact consequences of declaring independence will be (if any). Despite some advancement in its urge for greater autonomy, Catalonia still holds a long list of grievances with the Spanish government.
Having been repressed during the Franco dictatorship in ways some experts call an attempted ¨cultural genocide¨, Catalonia was recognized as nation within Spain and allowed to actively use its Catalan language across all its public institutions. As well having been given control of its education system, and police force (Micó and Carbonell). The region believes its health care system and infrastructure are vastly underfunded, and that its wealth is exploited to supplement the poorer states in the South. These grievances, coupled with repeated negative responses from the Spanish government on discussion about a referendum on independence, led to the crisis in October 2017 where an unofficial referendum ended in violence by the Spanish police force. This event captured international media attention and triggered a sequence of events that would lead to Catalonia declaring momentary independence, the Spanish government seizing the regional government’s powers and jailing most of the politicians involved, and financial backlash caused by financial institutions leaving Barcelona. With the independence movement reaching its climax and the Catalan government reforming itself after abrupt regional elections called by Madrid, it becomes necessary to determine how the situation might develop and whether it will affect the rest of Europe.
What is evident is that Catalonia’s situation is not unique; most regions that wish to be independent are also often in the northern section of their respective countries, have some sort of historical culture that is distinct from the rest of the country, and have a higher wealth gap between them and the rest of the regions. This is something most analysts agree on: regions like Catalonia, Northern Italy, and Flanders are more prosperous regions that often “subside other states through tax-transfer” (Vaubel). On a much wider scale, it seems the United Kingdom had similar disagreements with its role within the European Union, with its government frequently arguing that it was contributing more funds to the EU (especially the countries in the Mediterranean South like Greece) than it was receiving( Brexit). Funds that, Brexit proponents argued, could be used to increase government spending and lower taxes (Brexit).
Other regions in Europe with aspirations of independence bear several other similarities to Catalonia´s situation. Stratfor, an American geopolitical intelligence platform, notes that in Belgium the situation is almost identical to Spain:
Belgium is a divided country. Those in the wealthy, Dutch-speaking region of Flanders in the north are often critical of those in the poorer, French-speaking region of Wallonia to the south. And many in Flanders consider Belgium's system of transferring funds from wealthier regions to poorer ones unfair. Furthermore, Belgium's complex federal government tends to produce oversized coalition governments that voters see as ineffective. (Stratfor)
Stratfor also notes that the economically advanced Northern Italian states also wish to have greater control of their taxes as they also believe they contribute more to the national government than they receive (Stratfor). Researchers argue over the various causes of this rise in independence movements, and whether states seceding from their central governments would beneficial or detrimental to the global economy.
Most agree that the subsequent fragmentation of a major European economy in today´s economically driven world would cause initial negative consequences on an international scale. This case is especially true for countries like Spain and Italy, whose economies are among the largest in the EU. As can be seen by the aftermath of Brexit, most of Europe´s countries share a collective economy and most of their government sectors are intricately linked. Under EU laws, a proclamation of independence or secession converts the seceding region into a “third party”; its automatic expulsion from the common currency and the EU as a whole is predicted to cause disruption to other European economies (Vaubel). In any case, as demonstrated with Brexit, leaving the EU is an extremely complex task. The Guardian estimates that “an independent Catalonia would need to establish its own central bank, inland revenue, air traffic control and defense force, as well as electricity and gas transportation and distribution. All of which are currently run by Madrid” (Henley). Once expelled, the region would also have to set up its own trade regulations and agreements with other countries, as well as establishing customs and border controls with Spain (who would still be a member of the EU). Thus, it would have to establish border relations not only with Spain but the EU as an entity; a task that has proved to be one of the United Kingdom’s biggest problems during Brexit despite being an island nation. Economic experts estimate Catalonia’s robust economy would most likely enter recession within a year of independence under the pressure of becoming a new nation (Henley).
Catalans held that their financial institutions would stay within their new hypothetical country, arguing that their economic situation would only improve under independence (Stratfor). However, in the subsequent days after the crisis of October 2017, the Caixa and Sabadell banks (Catalonia’s largest and most important) moved their fiscal headquarters to other parts of Spain in fear of being excluded from the European Union’s banking system should the region secede. Followed by a further four thousand companies and multinationals who also fled in the coming months, this large exodus of companies led to Catalonia’s GDP shrinking below Madrid’s for the first time in over a century. For Catalonia, being independent would mean paying tariffs long abolished by the European Union in order to be able to trade with its new neighbors (including Spain). This would be added to the expenses that come with covering areas that are currently covered by the Spanish State, such as defense. The new Catalan state would also already be in debt upon seceding as “Catalonia’s government debt as a proportion of GDP has more than tripled since 2009, standing at €76.7bn at the end of June 2017”, meaning it would inherit its portion of Spain’s overall debt (Henry).
Despite a sizeable majority claiming its economic future would be compromised, Catalonia argues that the difficult financial situation would be temporary as it believes it will quickly reintegrate with the EU as a member (Stratfor). This is considered unlikely by geopolitical analysts as it requires the approval of all 28 member states (Spain included), and most European countries would not wish to set that precedent when most have independence movements of their own occurring within their regions (Stratfor). While it is impossible to estimate what would happen if Catalonia secedes, there is also questionable evidence to suggest that it has the popular support to do so.
Prior to the Great Recession in 2012, only a small portion of the Catalan population wished for independence. In addition to difficult times caused by La Crisis, Catalonia was already frustrated by the Spanish Constitutional Court declaring part of the region’s new statute invalid, a statute that was approved through a referendum and made claims to Catalonia’s right to be a nation. The Catalan language had long been a political tool for secessionists, but its imposition on the public was greatly increased since the independence movement began in 2012. Since that year, the Generalitat in Catalonia made the use of the language compulsory over Spanish in its government institutions, its education system, and the media. This use of the Catalan language as a political statement has been a “very active agent in social transformation” according to some international relations experts; who also argue that the Catalan media’s insistent use of the language helps the public construct the idea of a “country” separate from the Spanish speaking world (Micó and Carbonell).
Despite these efforts, in regional elections parties that support full independence have frequently attained a majority of seats in the local parliament but have never reached more the 48% of the vote ("Catalonia: What Would An Economic Split Mean?"). And by the Generalitat’s own estimations, Spanish is still the predominant language in a region where nearly all inhabitants are bilingual in both languages (Micó and Carbonell). Additionally, the early elections called in December 2017 resulted in a Pro-Spain party being the most voted. While negotiations with Catalonia were briefly held at the beginning of last year (2018), disagreements over Spain’s economic contribution to Catalan infrastructure brought talks to a hold. While long being a claim by supporters of independence, its arguments of inequal tax distribution can be refuted by the fact that the region has historically received ample investment from the central government. The 1992 Olympics and a large economic forum in 2004 were staged in Barcelona and financed with billions of dollars in Spanish taxes. In addition to the financing of the Olympics, massive improvements were made to Catalan highways, ports, and airports in preparation of the Games. According to Business Insider:
Unemployment dropped dramatically, from an all-time high of 127,774 in November 1986 to a low of 60,885 in July 1992. Olympic infrastructure created for the games is thought to have provided over 20,000 permanent jobs for Barcelona. ("How The Olympic Games Changed Barcelona Forever")
While the argument that it contributes more in taxes than it receives is accurate, the notion that Spain does not invest back in Catalonia can be seriously questioned using the Olympics and its aftermath as evidence.
Catalonia is just one example of a region with aspirations of independence, but it is clearly the best example of what can happen when these aspirations inspired by irredentism are ignored. The main difference between the situation in Catalonia, the United Kingdom, or other countries, is that in this modern age they now form a cohesive union inspired by common ideals. Fractioning and creating new countries would disrupt the progress Europe has made in the last 70 years since World War II. And although negotiation have been initiated to try to prevent (or in the case of the UK: soften) secession and its social and economic effects, the cohesion of the EU is still very much a concern. The rise of anti-EU sentiment within other countries who wish to follow the UK’s example has also contributed to the problem. In order to preserve the integrity of the European Union and the culturally diverse country of Spain, mediation and discussion over aspects of the EU government structure must occur. As we can see from examples in Catalonia, it does not take much effort to revert back to the violence and civil disobedience that ignited the first World War.
Works Cited
"Catalonia Region Profile". BBC News, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-20345071. Accessed 18 Mar 2019.
"Catalonia: What Would An Economic Split Mean?". BBC News, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45723474. Accessed 14 Mar 2019.
"Beyond Catalonia: Separatist Movements in Western Europe | DW | 30.09.2017". DW.COM, 2019, https://www.dw.com/en/beyond-catalonia-separatist-movements-in-western-europe/a-40761144. Accessed 18 Mar 2019.
“Brexit.” Wikipedia: the Free Encyclopedia, Wikimedia Foundation, Inc., 6 February 2019, 6:17 pm. Web. 6 Feb. 2019
European Countries by population (2020). (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.worldometers.info/population/countries-in-europe-by-population/
"How The Olympic Games Changed Barcelona Forever". Business Insider, 2019, https://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-olympic-games-changed-barcelona-forever-2012-7?IR=T. Accessed 20 Mar 2019.
Henley, Jon. "An Independent Catalonia: Practicalities of Leaving Spain". The Guardian, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/09/an-independent-catalonia-practicalities-of-leaving-spain. Accessed 15 Mar 2019.
"Irredentism." Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia, 6 Mar. 2019. Web. 14 Mar. 2019.
Micó, Josep-Lluís, and Josep-Maria Carbonell. “The Catalan Political Process for Independence: An Example of the Partisan Media System.” American Behavioral Scientist, vol. 61, no. 4, Apr. 2017, pp. 428–440. EBSCOhost, doi:10.1177/0002764217693277.
Stratfor. Beyond Catalonia, Taking Stock of Europe's Separatist Movements. [online] Available at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/beyond-catalonia-taking-stock-europes-separatist-movements [Accessed 17 Feb. 2019].
Vaubel, Roland, Secession in the European Union (October 2013). Economic Affairs, Vol. 33, Issue 3, pp. 288-302, 2013.
After centuries of prolonged wars and a semi-constant state of conflict, the countries of Europe tried something out of character during the 19th century: tenuous peace. For much of that century, the continent’s great powers maintained an established balance through complicated military and political alliances meant to deter large and unnecessary wars. This general policy of deterrence held that since most of the Great Powers (France, Russia, United Kingdom, etc.) were considered roughly equal in power, a general war would be far too costly and destructive to be in any countries interest. This change in foreign policy came after centuries of prolonged wars that often devastated nations and left Europe in a semi-constant state of conflict. By the end of that century one of the Great Powers, the Ottoman Empire, had fragmented and produced several new countries in the Balkans. The ethnic populations of these countries often remained under foreign rule and strived to reclaim lost land under the idea of irredentism, an idea defined as:
Any political or popular movement intended to reclaim and reoccupy a “lost” or “unredeemed” area; territorial claims are justified on the basis of real or imagined national and historic (an area formerly part of that state) or ethnic (an area inhabited by that nation or ethnic group) affiliations. (“Irredentism”)
Heightened tensions after independence caused the Balkan Peninsula to become one of the most conflictual regions of Europe with each country having aspirations of reclaiming land at the expense of their neighbors. This seemingly remote conflict would trigger a global war that would unravel Europe’s tenuous peace and cause a then-unparalleled scale of destruction, setting the precedent for a second and even more destructive war. This sequence of events be traced back to the then seemingly unimportant independence and secessionist aspirations of small countries.
In many ways, Europe has consistently been the center or the main cause of major international events for centuries. It is distinct in the aspect that few continents have altered their maps so frequently or dramatically; today, over a quarter of the world´s countries are located within the peninsular continent. This is a remarkable fact when considering it contains less than 10% of the world’s population and is arguably the smallest continent by land area (6%) (European Countries by population (2020). Nevertheless, its map has been subjected to constant change as a result of the unity (or dissolution) of various different cultural groups, often through the use of brutal warfare.
In what seemed like repetition of the events of the previous century, Europe´s lack of lasting peace was seemingly corrected in the latter part of the 20th century. This time it happened not with military alliances and constant threats of intervention, but with the idea of uniting the continent into a separate political entity known as the European Union, an organization designed to maintain stability, promote collective economic growth through cohesive financial measures, and bring an end to the chronic issue of territorial disputes within the union by eliminating border controls. The EU´s structure and political policies also make it highly unlikely for its members to ever go to war again with each other, as it would be detrimental for a European nation to go to war when its industries and companies are so intricately linked together with the countries it would hypothetically go into war against. Aided by the establishment of the EU, the borders of Western Europe have remained firm even as the borders of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia crumbled with the passage of time. However, the union of several countries each with their own culture and ideologies, now brings on the challenge of keeping said union intact. As old habits die hard, Europe’s foundation is being challenged by a new wave of independence and nationalist movements. And according to media sources, some of these movements have become militant and have varying chances of success (“Beyond Catalonia”).
With an economy still frail after the Great Recession, a large increase in support of right-wing austerity parties, and open debate about whether or not its collective government measures lower the credibility of national governments; the EU’s cohesion has been tested several times in recent years. Some analysts agree that the independence movements in some countries are a by-product of the long and severe recession of the early 2010’s (Micó and Carbonell). Others indicate that the subsequent political shift that caused many countries to enter austerity measures and redistribute taxes are the main cause of protest in regions with nationalist aspirations (Stratfor). A commonality that most of these regions share is that the majority are located in affluent northern portions of their respective countries and “have a higher per capita income than the rest of the country” (Vaubel). An example of a region that shares all of these characteristics is Europe’s most recent (and ongoing) independence movement: Catalonia.
Catalonia has long been a proudly distinct region of Spain, a country that maintains that many of its autonomous communities preserve a historic nationality tied to the medieval kingdoms that they formed prior to unification. With its own culture and language, Catalonia is one of the country’s richest and most industrialized regions, accounting for 20% of Spain’s GDP and forming an essential part of Spain´s economy. Like the rest of Spain’s regions, its culture and language were often suppressed after the unification of the country in favor of a more centralized culture with Spanish as the official language. The BBC’s report on the region points out that while “initially retaining its own institutions, the region was ever more tightly integrated into the Spanish state” and eventually ceased to be a political entity separate from that of the state ("Catalonia Region Profile"). It was not until the late 19th century that Catalonia began to associate its strong sense of nationality with the idea of irredentism, much as the Balkans had already done around the same time. The recognition of its own flag and anthem, as well as the historical argument that it was forced to rejoin the Spanish monarchy after the Siege of Barcelona in 1714, all fueled the region´s aspiration to become a country independent from Spain. The Catalan government (Generalitat) believes its independence drive is tied to the basic elements of democracy, actively advocating for a legally binding referendum on the matter. Thus, the characteristics that define nationhood are all present: “their own language and culture, differentiated institutions, a strong feeling of shared history, and all of the symbols necessary to make this claim, from the flag to the anthem” (Micó and Carbonell).
In contrast to the 19th century, modern day arguments for independence stem from primarily financial reasons. Being one of the few Spanish regions to manage to industrialize during the first revolution, Catalonia has long been one of Spain’s most prosperous areas and now has an economy about the size of Denmark’s ("Catalonia Region Profile"). With the metropolitan port city of Barcelona serving as its economic base, it is also the national leader in terms of exports and Spain’s important tourism sector. In regard to its relations with the rest of Europe, Catalonia maintains that it should automatically become a member of the EU upon independence, as it would rank as the 15th or 16th highest country in the bloc in terms of GDP (Henley). However, with no precedent for such an event, it is unclear what the exact consequences of declaring independence will be (if any). Despite some advancement in its urge for greater autonomy, Catalonia still holds a long list of grievances with the Spanish government.
Having been repressed during the Franco dictatorship in ways some experts call an attempted ¨cultural genocide¨, Catalonia was recognized as nation within Spain and allowed to actively use its Catalan language across all its public institutions. As well having been given control of its education system, and police force (Micó and Carbonell). The region believes its health care system and infrastructure are vastly underfunded, and that its wealth is exploited to supplement the poorer states in the South. These grievances, coupled with repeated negative responses from the Spanish government on discussion about a referendum on independence, led to the crisis in October 2017 where an unofficial referendum ended in violence by the Spanish police force. This event captured international media attention and triggered a sequence of events that would lead to Catalonia declaring momentary independence, the Spanish government seizing the regional government’s powers and jailing most of the politicians involved, and financial backlash caused by financial institutions leaving Barcelona. With the independence movement reaching its climax and the Catalan government reforming itself after abrupt regional elections called by Madrid, it becomes necessary to determine how the situation might develop and whether it will affect the rest of Europe.
What is evident is that Catalonia’s situation is not unique; most regions that wish to be independent are also often in the northern section of their respective countries, have some sort of historical culture that is distinct from the rest of the country, and have a higher wealth gap between them and the rest of the regions. This is something most analysts agree on: regions like Catalonia, Northern Italy, and Flanders are more prosperous regions that often “subside other states through tax-transfer” (Vaubel). On a much wider scale, it seems the United Kingdom had similar disagreements with its role within the European Union, with its government frequently arguing that it was contributing more funds to the EU (especially the countries in the Mediterranean South like Greece) than it was receiving( Brexit). Funds that, Brexit proponents argued, could be used to increase government spending and lower taxes (Brexit).
Other regions in Europe with aspirations of independence bear several other similarities to Catalonia´s situation. Stratfor, an American geopolitical intelligence platform, notes that in Belgium the situation is almost identical to Spain:
Belgium is a divided country. Those in the wealthy, Dutch-speaking region of Flanders in the north are often critical of those in the poorer, French-speaking region of Wallonia to the south. And many in Flanders consider Belgium's system of transferring funds from wealthier regions to poorer ones unfair. Furthermore, Belgium's complex federal government tends to produce oversized coalition governments that voters see as ineffective. (Stratfor)
Stratfor also notes that the economically advanced Northern Italian states also wish to have greater control of their taxes as they also believe they contribute more to the national government than they receive (Stratfor). Researchers argue over the various causes of this rise in independence movements, and whether states seceding from their central governments would beneficial or detrimental to the global economy.
Most agree that the subsequent fragmentation of a major European economy in today´s economically driven world would cause initial negative consequences on an international scale. This case is especially true for countries like Spain and Italy, whose economies are among the largest in the EU. As can be seen by the aftermath of Brexit, most of Europe´s countries share a collective economy and most of their government sectors are intricately linked. Under EU laws, a proclamation of independence or secession converts the seceding region into a “third party”; its automatic expulsion from the common currency and the EU as a whole is predicted to cause disruption to other European economies (Vaubel). In any case, as demonstrated with Brexit, leaving the EU is an extremely complex task. The Guardian estimates that “an independent Catalonia would need to establish its own central bank, inland revenue, air traffic control and defense force, as well as electricity and gas transportation and distribution. All of which are currently run by Madrid” (Henley). Once expelled, the region would also have to set up its own trade regulations and agreements with other countries, as well as establishing customs and border controls with Spain (who would still be a member of the EU). Thus, it would have to establish border relations not only with Spain but the EU as an entity; a task that has proved to be one of the United Kingdom’s biggest problems during Brexit despite being an island nation. Economic experts estimate Catalonia’s robust economy would most likely enter recession within a year of independence under the pressure of becoming a new nation (Henley).
Catalans held that their financial institutions would stay within their new hypothetical country, arguing that their economic situation would only improve under independence (Stratfor). However, in the subsequent days after the crisis of October 2017, the Caixa and Sabadell banks (Catalonia’s largest and most important) moved their fiscal headquarters to other parts of Spain in fear of being excluded from the European Union’s banking system should the region secede. Followed by a further four thousand companies and multinationals who also fled in the coming months, this large exodus of companies led to Catalonia’s GDP shrinking below Madrid’s for the first time in over a century. For Catalonia, being independent would mean paying tariffs long abolished by the European Union in order to be able to trade with its new neighbors (including Spain). This would be added to the expenses that come with covering areas that are currently covered by the Spanish State, such as defense. The new Catalan state would also already be in debt upon seceding as “Catalonia’s government debt as a proportion of GDP has more than tripled since 2009, standing at €76.7bn at the end of June 2017”, meaning it would inherit its portion of Spain’s overall debt (Henry).
Despite a sizeable majority claiming its economic future would be compromised, Catalonia argues that the difficult financial situation would be temporary as it believes it will quickly reintegrate with the EU as a member (Stratfor). This is considered unlikely by geopolitical analysts as it requires the approval of all 28 member states (Spain included), and most European countries would not wish to set that precedent when most have independence movements of their own occurring within their regions (Stratfor). While it is impossible to estimate what would happen if Catalonia secedes, there is also questionable evidence to suggest that it has the popular support to do so.
Prior to the Great Recession in 2012, only a small portion of the Catalan population wished for independence. In addition to difficult times caused by La Crisis, Catalonia was already frustrated by the Spanish Constitutional Court declaring part of the region’s new statute invalid, a statute that was approved through a referendum and made claims to Catalonia’s right to be a nation. The Catalan language had long been a political tool for secessionists, but its imposition on the public was greatly increased since the independence movement began in 2012. Since that year, the Generalitat in Catalonia made the use of the language compulsory over Spanish in its government institutions, its education system, and the media. This use of the Catalan language as a political statement has been a “very active agent in social transformation” according to some international relations experts; who also argue that the Catalan media’s insistent use of the language helps the public construct the idea of a “country” separate from the Spanish speaking world (Micó and Carbonell).
Despite these efforts, in regional elections parties that support full independence have frequently attained a majority of seats in the local parliament but have never reached more the 48% of the vote ("Catalonia: What Would An Economic Split Mean?"). And by the Generalitat’s own estimations, Spanish is still the predominant language in a region where nearly all inhabitants are bilingual in both languages (Micó and Carbonell). Additionally, the early elections called in December 2017 resulted in a Pro-Spain party being the most voted. While negotiations with Catalonia were briefly held at the beginning of last year (2018), disagreements over Spain’s economic contribution to Catalan infrastructure brought talks to a hold. While long being a claim by supporters of independence, its arguments of inequal tax distribution can be refuted by the fact that the region has historically received ample investment from the central government. The 1992 Olympics and a large economic forum in 2004 were staged in Barcelona and financed with billions of dollars in Spanish taxes. In addition to the financing of the Olympics, massive improvements were made to Catalan highways, ports, and airports in preparation of the Games. According to Business Insider:
Unemployment dropped dramatically, from an all-time high of 127,774 in November 1986 to a low of 60,885 in July 1992. Olympic infrastructure created for the games is thought to have provided over 20,000 permanent jobs for Barcelona. ("How The Olympic Games Changed Barcelona Forever")
While the argument that it contributes more in taxes than it receives is accurate, the notion that Spain does not invest back in Catalonia can be seriously questioned using the Olympics and its aftermath as evidence.
Catalonia is just one example of a region with aspirations of independence, but it is clearly the best example of what can happen when these aspirations inspired by irredentism are ignored. The main difference between the situation in Catalonia, the United Kingdom, or other countries, is that in this modern age they now form a cohesive union inspired by common ideals. Fractioning and creating new countries would disrupt the progress Europe has made in the last 70 years since World War II. And although negotiation have been initiated to try to prevent (or in the case of the UK: soften) secession and its social and economic effects, the cohesion of the EU is still very much a concern. The rise of anti-EU sentiment within other countries who wish to follow the UK’s example has also contributed to the problem. In order to preserve the integrity of the European Union and the culturally diverse country of Spain, mediation and discussion over aspects of the EU government structure must occur. As we can see from examples in Catalonia, it does not take much effort to revert back to the violence and civil disobedience that ignited the first World War.
Works Cited
"Catalonia Region Profile". BBC News, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-20345071. Accessed 18 Mar 2019.
"Catalonia: What Would An Economic Split Mean?". BBC News, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45723474. Accessed 14 Mar 2019.
"Beyond Catalonia: Separatist Movements in Western Europe | DW | 30.09.2017". DW.COM, 2019, https://www.dw.com/en/beyond-catalonia-separatist-movements-in-western-europe/a-40761144. Accessed 18 Mar 2019.
“Brexit.” Wikipedia: the Free Encyclopedia, Wikimedia Foundation, Inc., 6 February 2019, 6:17 pm. Web. 6 Feb. 2019
European Countries by population (2020). (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.worldometers.info/population/countries-in-europe-by-population/
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